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Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case

International Journal of Infectious Diseases Sep 04, 2020

Ghayda RA, Lee KH, Han YJ, et al. - Many stakeholders have focused and exhibited interest in the estimation of the case fatality rate (CFR) of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as it plays a key role in understanding this pandemic and guides appropriate responses and efficient mitigation strategies. In this manuscript, researchers sought to demonstrate that the method of employing the cumulative CFR is static and does not suggest the trend according to the daily change per unit of time. Based on the results of meta-analyses carried out on CFR in countries reporting COVID-19 cases, a meta-analysis for global COVID-19 CFR was performed. Findings suggest that the CFR is not a fixed value, rather it is a dynamic value. Hence, they strongly emphasize practicing caution when dealing with CFR values, especially in an ongoing epidemic. In addition, differences were observed in the estimation of the global CFR of COVID-19, according to the calendar date and days, since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. They proposed a possible utility of the estimated kinetics of CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case, as a predictor to design COVID-19 reduction strategies.

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