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Estimates of global chemotherapy demands and corresponding physician workforce requirements for 2018 and 2040: A population-based study

The Lancet Oncology May 15, 2019

Wilson BE, et al. - Using data from GLOBOCAN 2018, researchers sought to estimate how national, regional, and global demands for first-course chemotherapy and the cancer physician workforce will change between 2018 and 2040 in relation to treating all patients according to best-practice evidence-based guidelines. They estimated that an annual increase from 9·8 million to 15·0 million will be seen in the number of patients requiring first-course chemotherapy, between 2018 and 2040, which implies a relative increase of 53%. Among patients who live in low-income or middle-income countries, the estimated proportion of those requiring chemotherapy was 63% in 2018 and this value will be 67% in 2040. Lung cancer, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer would constitute the most common indications for chemotherapy worldwide in 2040. In 2018, the delivery of optimal chemotherapy worldwide required 2018, 65,000 cancer physicians, this is estimated to rise to 100,000 by 2040 (with estimates ranging from 50,000 to 150,000, depending on workload).
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