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Effects and cost of different strategies to eliminate hepatitis C virus transmission in Pakistan: A modelling analysis

The Lancet Global Health Feb 27, 2020

Lim AG, Walker JG, Mafirakureva N, et al. - Researchers assessed the impacts as well as the cost of distinct strategies to scale up screening and treatment of hepatitis C in Pakistan. They also investigated what is needed to satisfy WHO elimination targets for incidence. They employed a former model of hepatitis C virus transmission, treatment, and disease progression for Pakistan, calibrating utilizing accessible data to include a detailed cascade of care for hepatitis C with cost data on diagnostics and hepatitis C treatment. They estimated that one-time screening of 90% of the 2018 population by 2030, with 80% referral to treatment, would result in 13·8 million people being screened and 350,000 treatments initiated yearly, which would ultimately lead to a reduction in hepatitis C incidence by 26·5% (22·5–30·7) over 2018–30. A rise by 46·8% in the number screened and treated as well as a reduction in incidence by 50·8% are likely to be achieved via prioritized screening of high prevalence groups (PWID [people who inject drugs] and adults aged ≥ 30 years) and rescreening (annually for PWID, otherwise every 10 years). It was inferred that in order to allow sufficient scale up in screening and treatment to reach the WHO hepatitis C elimination target of an 80% decrease in incidence by 2030, Pakistan will require to invest approximately 9·0% of its yearly health expenditure.
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