Development of a Medicare claims‐based model to predict persistent high‐dose opioid use after total knee replacement
Arthritis Care & Research Feb 09, 2021
Gopalakrishnan C, Desai RJ, Franklin JM, et al. - A claims‐based model was developed to prognosticate persistent high‐dose opioid use amongst patients undergoing total knee replacement (TKR). Researchers distinguished patients ≥ 65 years who underwent TKR with no history of high‐dose opioid use (>25 mean morphine equivalents (MME)/day) in the year prior using Medicare claims (2010‐2014). A group‐based trajectory modeling was applied to distinguish distinct opioid use patterns. The primary outcome was persistent high‐dose opioid use in the year after TKR. A total of 142,089 patients who had undergone TKR were included in the study. It was shown that 10.6% became persistent high dose (mean=22.4 MME/day) opioid users after TKR in this cohort of older patients. The model with 10 readily available clinical factors may help distinguish individuals at high risk of future adverse outcomes from persistent opioid use after TKR.
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