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Development, internal validation and calibration of a risk score to predict survival in patients with EGFR -mutant non-small cell lung cancer

Journal of Clinical Pathology Jan 22, 2021

Ng IKS, Kumarakulasinghe NB, Syn NL, et al. - In patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with sensitising EGFR mutations, researchers attempted to distinguish clinical, immune, and biochemical variables with prognostic ability and incorporate them into a nomogram-based risk score. Researchers retrospectively profiled a sum of 199 individuals with EGFR mutation-positive, advanced NSCLC stage IV at initial diagnosis or incurable disease recurrence) treated with first-line EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitor therapy. They performed univariable and multivariable survival analyses, with variables from the multivariable model with the highest Harrell’s Concordance (C) Index selected for inclusion in the subsequent survival nomogram. They also conducted internal validation and internal calibration of the prognostic nomogram. In patients with advanced, EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was identified as an independent predictor of unfavorable clinical outcomes. A robust nomogram-based risk score was developed that incorporates clinical, biochemical, and immune variables that can provide more targeted prognostication and management in this patient subgroup. White cell count, hemoglobin, LDH, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, ethnicity (Chinese vs non-Chinese), Karnofsky-Performance Status (score of ‘90–100’ or ‘70–80’ vs ‘0–60’), Charlson Comorbidity Index (≥3, or 2, or 1 vs 0), neurological symptoms, brain, lung/pleural and adrenal metastases were the 11 variables incorporated into the nomogram.

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