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Development and validation of a predictive model to identify patients with an ascending thoracic aortic aneurysm

Journal of the American Heart Association Nov 11, 2021

Mori M, Gan G, Deng Y, et al. - Based on readily available clinical information, a risk model is developed that may aid in identification of individuals at elevated risk of having an ascending thoracic aortic aneurysm (ATAA).

  • A cross‐sectional study of computed tomography scans involving the chest on unique patients aged 50 to 85 years.

  • A total of 21,325 computed tomography scans were obtained following the criteria.

  • Assessment of the ascending thoracic aorta was done using the double‐oblique technique, and an ATAA was defined as > 40 mm in diameter.

  • A total of 560 (2.6%) patients with an ATAA were identified among the 21,325 patients.

  • Increased risk of an ATAA was observed in correlation with older age, higher body surface area, history of arrhythmia, aortic valve disease, hypertension, and family history of aortic aneurysm, whereas the risk was lower in correlation with female gender and diabetes.

  • The model generated the C statistic of 0.723±0.016.

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