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Development and external validation of a breast cancer absolute risk prediction model in Chinese population

Breast Cancer Research Jun 05, 2021

Han Y, Lv J, Yu C, et al. - Utilizing data from a large nationwide prospective cohort, researchers sought to develop a prediction model for invasive breast cancer among Chinese women aged 30 years and older and validate its performance in an independent cohort in Shanghai. In total, 300,824 women free of any prior cancer were selected during 2004–2008 and followed up to December 31, 2016. To externally validate the calibration and discriminating accuracy, they used an independent large prospective cohort, Shanghai Women’s Health Study, with 73,203 women. Two thousand two hundred eighty-seven cases were observed during a median of 10.2 years of follow-up in the China Kadoorie Biobank. Age, residence area, education, BMI, height, family history of overall cancer, parity, and age at menarche were all factors in the final model. The model has a good calibration and a moderate discriminating capacity based solely on non-laboratory predictors. The model could be a useful tool for raising individual awareness and assisting risk-based screening and prevention strategies.

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