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Developing a scoring model to predict the risk of injurious falls in elderly patients: A retrospective case-control study in multicenter acute hospitals

Clinical Interventions in Aging Sep 28, 2020

Zhao M, Li S, Xu Y, et al. - Researchers investigated the factors predictive of the risk for injurious falls in elderly patients. Further, they developed a nomogram for differentiating populations at high risk of injurious falls from older adults in acute settings. They conducted a retrospective case–control study at three hospitals in Shanghai, China, including 115 elderly patients with injurious falls as cases, and 230 patients who did not have falls and were matched based on the admission date and the department, as controls. Following were identified as independent risk factors for injurious falls in elderly patients: history of fractures, orthostatic hypotension, functional status, sedative-hypnotics and level of serum albumin. For the training and validation sets, the C-indexes were 0.874 (95% CI: 0.784− 0.964) and 0.847 (95% CI: 0.771– 0.924), respectively and the cut-off values were 146.3 points (sensitivity: 73.7%; specificity: 87.5%) and 157.2 points (sensitivity: 69.2%; specificity: 85.5%), respectively. The established nomogram allows recognition of high-risk populations among elderly patients, affording a novel assessment tool to predict the individual risk of injurious falls.

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