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Derivation and validation of a nomogram to predict in-hospital complications in children with tetralogy of Fallot repaired at an older age

Journal of the American Heart Association Nov 04, 2019

Liu H, Zheng SQ, Li XY, et al. - Using a derivation cohort and validation cohorts, researchers sought to create as well as verify a model to predict in-hospital complications in children with tetralogy of Fallot repaired at an older age. The derivation cohort included 513 pediatric patients from the Tianjin dataset, and for validation, they used 158 pediatric patients from the Hefei and Xiamen datasets. A nomogram was built depending on the risk classifier and independent baseline variables using a multivariable logistic model. Good discrimination, as well as goodness-of-fit for derivation and external validation, was demonstrated by a nomogram combining the ARIAR-Risk classifier (absolute and relative low risk, intermediate risk, and aggressive and refractory high risk) with age and mean blood pressure. Findings revealed the reliability of a risk-classifier–oriented nomogram as a prediction model for in-hospital complications in children with tetralogy of Fallot repaired at an older age. Risk/benefit–based decision-making was strengthened by using this nomogram.
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