Capelusnik D, Aletaha D, et al. - In rheumatoid arthritis (RA), prediction of treatment success is limited. Lower baseline levels of disease activity can allow achieving prediction of state targets especially in early RA.

• Data from three RA trials were analyzed for a comprehensive analysis on predictors of achieving disease activity outcomes by change, response and state measures.

• Lower disease activity components at baseline were related to achievement of state outcomes (such as low disease activity by the Simplified Disease Activity Index, SDAI).

• There was an association of higher baseline values with change outcomes (such as SDAI absolute change).

• A combination of shorter disease duration, male gender and lower disease activity offered the best prediction of state outcomes.

• Higher levels of C reactive protein at baseline were related to better responses.

• Coordination of involved populations and choice of outcomes can help maximise efficiency from clinical trials.