Cust AE, Badcock C, Smith J, et al. - Researchers created a risk prediction model based on the demographic, phenotypic, histopathologic, sun exposure and genomic risk factors for subsequent primary melanoma to guide skin surveillance. Data for 2,613 melanomas from 1,266 patients recruited to the population-based Genes, Environment and Melanoma study in New South Wales, Australia using Cox regression frailty models were analyzed, with a median of 14 years follow-up through the cancer registry. The risk of a subsequent melanoma for the highest vs lowest quintile of the risk score was 4.75 times higher. Data reported that the mean absolute risk of subsequent primary melanoma was 8.0% in 5 years after the first melanoma and 46.8% after the second melanoma but the risk score varied significantly. Investigators found that the risk of developing a subsequent primary melanoma varies significantly from individual to individual and is especially high for those with two or more previous melanomas. This model and nomograms of risk prediction allow estimating the absolute risk of subsequent melanoma based on the risk factors of an individual and can be used to tailor monitoring intensity, communicate risk, and provide patient education.