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A novel prognostic model predicts overall survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on clinical features and blood biomarkers

Cancer Medicine May 28, 2021

Lai C, Zhang C, Lv H, et al. - Researchers herein sought to construct as well as validate a novel prognostic model to estimate overall survival (OS) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients on the basis of clinical characteristics and blood biomarkers. For this, a retrospective analysis of 519 NPC cases was conducted. A prognostic model comprising 13 variables with respect to patient prognosis, was established employing the Lasso regression. It was demonstrated by concordance index, time-dependent ROC, and decision curve analysis that relative to TNM staging, clinical treatment, and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA copy number, there was good predictive accuracy as well as discriminatory power of the prognostic model in the training cohort. Some superior net benefit was demonstrated by nomogram comprising the prognostic model, TNM staging, clinical treatment, and EBV DNA copy number. On the basis of the model risk score, patients were divided into two subgroups: low-risk (risk score ≤ −1.423) and high-risk (risk score > −1.423). OS significantly differed between the two subgroups of patients. The validation cohort revealed similar results. Overall, the novel prognostic model, built on the basis of clinical features and serological markers, may serve as a promising means for estimating OS in NPC cases.

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