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A comparative modeling analysis of risk-based lung cancer screening strategies

Journal of the National Cancer Institute Dec 15, 2019

ten Haaf K, Bastani M, Cao P, et al. - Researchers compared risk-based screening for lung cancer vs current United States Preventive Services Task Force recommendations, in terms of long-term benefits and harms. For this purpose, they used four independent natural history models. For a 1950 US birth cohort, they assessed 363 risk-based screening strategies differing by screening initiating and terminating age, risk-prediction model adopted for eligibility (Bach, PLCOm2012, or Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool), and risk threshold. They found that considerably more lung cancer deaths were prevented by adopting risk-based lung cancer screening strategies vs current recommendations. However, the former yielded modest additional life-years and raised overdiagnosis due to mainly selecting older people. In order to ensure the efficient implementation of risk-based lung cancer screening, there is a need for careful consideration of life expectancy for ascertaining optimal individual stopping ages.
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