Takabayashi K, Okada Y, Iwatsu K, et al. - This study offers a useful tool, the Kitakawachi Clinical Background and Outcome of Heart Failure score, to aid prediction of adverse events in patients with acute heart failure over a long-term period. Evaluating the physical and social functions of such patients before discharge is recommended to avoid adverse outcomes.

• Data were analyzed from a prospective, multicenter cohort of patients with acute heart failure (n=1,117) to construct and validate a prediction model for acute heart failure patients at the time of discharge.

• Age, gender, BMI, activities of daily living at discharge, social background, comorbidities, biomarkers, and echocardiographic findings were selected as potential predictors.

• The risk scoring system was developed by setting 11 variables, including physical and social factors, into the logistic regression model.

• Three groups of patients were defined: low risk (score 0–5), moderate risk (score 6–11), and high risk (score ≥12).

• The prediction model had a C statistic of 0.778 in the test cohort, and the mean predicted probabilities in the groups were low, 6.9%; moderate, 30.1%; and high, 79.2%.