Cook G, et al. - Researchers used routinely collected data to develop a risk profile for the prediction of overall survival in patients with multiple myeloma who were ineligible for stem-cell transplantation. They also sought validation for this model. Data were extracted from two randomised controlled trials, the NCRI Myeloma XI study [NCRI-XI, n=1852] and the MRC Myeloma IX study [MRC-IX, n=520], to develop the UK Myeloma Research Alliance Risk Profile (MRP) for overall survival. They used NCRI-XI to internally validate the MRP and MRC-IX for external validation. The prognostic variables included in the MRP included WHO performance status, International Staging System, age, and C-reactive protein concentration. The MRP was found to be prognostic of overall survival. They successfully internally validated MRP in NCRI-XI and externally validated in MRC-IX (D-statistic NCRI-XI: 0·840 and MRC-IX: 0·654). The MRP groups defining low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk patients were found to be related to progression-free survival and early mortality. Overall, this risk profile could be helpful in decision making in this patient population.