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10-year risk equations for incident heart failure in the general population

Journal of the American College of Cardiology May 20, 2019

Khan SS, et al. – In this contemporary analysis involving 33,010 men and women, researchers developed 10-year risk equations for the prevention of incident heart failure (HF). Participants were recruited from 7 community-based cohorts with at least 12 years of follow-up; individual-level data were obtained to derive and validate race- and sex-specific 10-year risk equations for HF. Age, blood pressure (treated or untreated), fasting glucose (treated or untreated), body mass index, cholesterol, smoking status, and QRS duration were HF predictors incorporated in the models. Good discrimination and strong calibration of the pooled cohort equations to Prevent HF model was evident in internal and external validation cohorts. Findings revealed the utility of this model for HF risk prediction as well as for risk-based decision making regarding intensive screening and/or targeted prevention strategies.

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