Around two in every five GPs in the South West have said they intend to quit within the next five years, exposing the magnitude of the region’s impending healthcare crisis suggesting that the picture for the UK may be particularly challenging, according to a new BMJ Open study co–authored by Professor Chris Salisbury at the University of Bristol.

The study – a large–scale survey of GPs in the region – also found that seven out of 10 GPs intend to change their working patterns in a way that would mean less contact with patients. This included leaving patient care, taking a career break, or reducing their hours.

Professor Salisbury said: “This survey highlights the level of the threat to the future of general practice. As more and more GPs retire or leave the profession it increases the pressure on those doctors who are left, making them more likely to leave as well.

“General practice acts like a sieve for the NHS, helping most people to manage their problems locally with only a few needing to go to hospital. If patients cannot get to see a GP, this will have a big knock effect on hospitals. The solution is not just for the NHS to try to recruit more GPs, but to really understand why GPs are leaving and to support them better in doing their jobs well. This survey will help the NHS to understand the problem, which is the first step in finding a solution.”

Professor John Campbell, of the University of Exeter Medical School, who led the research, has called for a move away from “sticking plaster solutions” towards robust, joined–up action to avert the crisis nationwide.

He said: ““We carried out this survey because of a nationally recognised crisis in the shortage of GPs across the country, and our findings show an even bleaker outlook than expected for GP cover, even in an area which is often considered desirable, and which has many rural communities. If GPs have similar intentions to leave or reduce their hours in other regions, as many are reporting, the country needs to take robust action more swiftly and urgently than previously thought.”